Finally, the US election result that everyone is waiting anxiously (perhaps except those who counted votes in Nevada) has come out: Vice President Joe Biden won the Election 2020 and unseated the current President Donald Trump.
During the voting and exhausted vote counting, the crypto market is filled with uncertainty. Then as crypto traders or blockchain communities, what should we expect from Biden’s presidency?
You might remember we’ve introduced how to trade the TRUMPWIN/TRUMPLOSE future and TRUMP2020/BIDEN2020 future in FTX. Now that the election ended, FTX puts out a settlement: Joe Biden has won the 2020 US Presidential election according to the settlement criteria defined for our President 2020 contracts. All presidential contracts (except for TRUMPFEB) have been settled accordingly.
The contract for $BIDEN, which now expires at $1, was worth $0.993 just moments after the election. There’s approximately $460K in open interest on the Biden’s side. Meanwhile, Trump’s contract fell to the bottom to less than $0.01, nearly worthless. Trump contract traders are about to lose $11M. But the contracts TRUMPFEB shall only expire when Trump is no longer president after 1st Feb, 2021.
The price of TRUMPFEB at the time of writing is $0.154.
It seems now bitcoin and the overall crypto market is starting a chaotic period as the US presidential transition has begun.
The chart above witnessed bitcoin surpassed $15,000, a new record high in 2020 after the votes result seemingly settled on 5th Nov. Then uncertainty continues in the market, as you can see BTC price goes up and down like a rollercoaster.
If Biden’s economic stimulus plan runs as he promised in the campaign, this could positively affect Bitcoin. Because when the financial conditions recover, investors would have more faith in the stock market. As for bitcoin, it is regarded as an alternative to stock or gold by more and more investment companies recently. So there might also be more investment in bitcoin.
Some analysts claim that Bitcoin and gold will finally rise rather than fall regarding the election. Because in the long run the inflation would continue no matter who enters the White House, and investment would prefer safe havens like Bitcoin or gold.
Despite the analysis, Biden’s policy after he really entered the White House is still not clear, which will be a significant factor in the overall crypto market even the blockchain industry in the US.
President Trump has outspoken his attitude on the crypto issue, saying “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies...”
Compared to him, the future President Biden didn’t directly raise crypto policies in his election campaign. Actually, he has never shown a pro or con position on Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. The only time he mentioned bitcoin was on his Twitter account, which seemed to be quite neutral.
However, there’s still some guessing that he would appoint pro-crypto officers to supervise the domestic market. Gary Gensler, former Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman, might help Biden take care of Wall Street, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Former Democratic presidential hopeful Andrew Yang, now a member of Biden’s campaign team, is quite bitcoin-friendly. Previously as a candidate, Yang has innovatively proposed a blockchain-based voting system once elected president.
With so many different analyses and predictions, it’s too early to rule things out for the crypto market at present.
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